Russia Shifts Focus to Libya as Strategic Base in Africa
The recent political upheaval in Syria has prompted Russia to consider Libya as its new strategic foothold in Africa. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of the Kremlin, Russia is reevaluating its military presence in the Mediterranean region and turning its attention toward Libya, experts indicate.
In Syria, Russia has established a military port and an air base designed to enhance its operations across the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in regions like the Sahel and Central African Republic. However, the recent changes in Syria's leadership have put this arrangement at risk.
Following Assad's ousting, the newly appointed Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has acknowledged Russia's significance, expressing a desire for continued Russian involvement in Syria. Despite these reassurances, the shifting political landscape is prompting the Kremlin to seek alternatives, particularly in Libya.
In Libya, Russian mercenaries are already active in supporting Khalifa Haftar, a military leader who commands the eastern part of the country, in opposition to the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) based in Tripoli, which is backed by Turkey.
Experts suggest that Russia's pivot towards Libya is primarily motivated by a desire to maintain its influence and military operations in Africa. Analysts argue that this move reflects a necessary adaptation to mitigate the loss of its foothold in Syria.
Recent investigations have revealed that Russian military activities are present at multiple sites across Libya, with a notable increase in troop deployments and military equipment deliveries. Reports indicate that by mid-2024, around 1,800 Russian troops were stationed in Libya, and there has been a significant transfer of military assets from Syria, including advanced anti-aircraft systems.
Since Assad's removal in December 2024, there has been a marked increase in the flow of Russian military resources into Libya. Intelligence sources have suggested that Moscow is planning to utilize cargo ships for the transportation of military supplies, further solidifying its presence in the region.
The geopolitical implications of Russia's actions in Libya are considerable. Analysts highlight that while Syria provided Moscow with a relatively discreet operational environment, Libya poses greater complexities due to its fraught political landscape and the presence of various international actors, including Turkey and Egypt, who have vested interests in the ongoing conflict.
Concerns have been raised by the Tripoli government and Italy regarding the increasing Russian military footprint, which is being closely monitored by NATO and the European Union. The U.S. has reportedly engaged with Haftar to deter any permanent Russian military establishment at strategic locations within Libya.
While Russia is likely to face challenges in establishing a stable presence in Libya compared to its operations in Syria, the Kremlin aims to exploit the fragmented political situation in Libya to extend its influence in Africa. The dynamics in Libya, which has been divided since the fall of Moamer Kadhafi, create an opportunity for Russia to disrupt Western interests and strengthen its strategic positioning in the region.
However, experts caution that Russia must tread carefully in Libya, avoiding the pitfalls experienced in Syria by placing excessive reliance on a single leader without contingency plans. Haftar's need for Western support may limit the extent of Russian influence, as he has historically enjoyed backing from various Western powers.
