The Shifting Landscape of Russian Opposition: Insights from Jan Matti Dollbaum

Jan Matti Dollbaum, a political scientist specializing in contemporary Russian politics, provides an analytical perspective on the evolution of the Russian opposition, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. As an assistant professor at the University of Fribourg in Switzerland, Dollbaum has contributed significantly to the discourse surrounding Russian activism and opposition movements.

In a recent discussion, Dollbaum elaborated on the current state of the Russian opposition, emphasizing the complexities introduced by the war in Ukraine. He categorized the opposition into various segments, differentiating between those located within Russia and those in exile. The exiled opposition, largely composed of liberal figures from Moscow, including supporters of Alexei Navalny, remains prominent in media portrayals and Western political discussions. However, Dollbaum pointed out that this group is increasingly disconnected from those still in Russia, suggesting a significant shift in the opposition landscape.

Dollbaum also touched upon the importance of Ukrainian perspectives in defining Russian opposition. While from an academic viewpoint this may seem less significant, it plays a crucial role in the ongoing discourse about who truly represents Russian citizens abroad. The narratives crafted by Ukrainian voices complicate the identity and image of the Russian opposition, particularly as figures like Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza seek to position themselves as 'good Russians' in the West.

When discussing the strategies employed by the exiled opposition since the onset of the Ukraine war, Dollbaum noted that they are focusing on two main objectives. Firstly, they endeavor to articulate a vision for a post-Putin Russia, attempting to dissociate the regime from the Russian populace to counteract the prevailing narrative of collective guilt. They strive to propose alternative policies that envision a different Russia. Secondly, they are actively trying to influence Western sanctions to ensure that they target the regime rather than ordinary citizens, recognizing the potential backlash such sanctions may provoke among the Russian people.

Furthermore, the opposition seeks to disseminate information within Russia, primarily through platforms like YouTube and Telegram, providing a counter-narrative that highlights the war's true costs for the nation. Prior to the war, mobilizing domestic support was a key strategy for the opposition, but the current climate has made such political organizing nearly impossible.

Dollbaum also reflected on the recent presidential elections in Russia, noting a moment of solidarity among anti-Kremlin forces, despite the overall lack of significant change in the political landscape. This unity, he argued, served more to bolster morale among opposition supporters than to pose a viable threat to the regime.

The conversation shifted towards the implications of violence in opposition strategies. Dollbaum suggested that while the opposition has traditionally embraced a liberal-democratic approach, the current regime's resilience may compel some to reconsider the effectiveness of such a strategy. He pointed out that real change could stem from unexpected figures within the regime, highlighting the case of Yevgeny Prigozhin as an example of how power dynamics can shift dramatically.

In discussing Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), Dollbaum noted that its future remains uncertain following Navalny's passing. The organization, which evolved around Navalny's leadership, now faces challenges in maintaining its influence without its charismatic founder. The foundation's ability to mobilize support has diminished, and it now competes with other opposition groups for attention and resources.

As for systemic opposition parties in Russia, such as the Communist Party and A Just Russia, Dollbaum suggested that while they may not be relevant in the current political climate, they could regain significance as organizational entities in the future. Potentially, these parties could serve as platforms for ambitious political figures seeking to establish their own power bases once the current regime is weakened.

Looking ahead, Dollbaum expressed that if the war in Ukraine were to cease under the current regime, it could bolster Putin's domestic standing, thereby diminishing the opposition's role. Conversely, a military defeat could provide an opportunity for the opposition to assert itself more forcefully. Regardless of the outcome, the long-term repercussions of the war, particularly concerning returning soldiers and their families, could catalyze new forms of opposition that have yet to emerge.