This weekend, voters in Belarus will head to the polls for a presidential election that is widely expected to reaffirm Alexander Lukashenko's position as president for a seventh consecutive term. The political climate in Belarus has been tumultuous since the controversial elections of August 2020, which were marred by significant allegations of fraud. In that election, Lukashenko was declared the winner, yet many independent sources indicated that opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya had actually secured a decisive victory. The aftermath sparked the largest protests in the country's history, lasting until winter conditions diminished public dissent and allowed authorities to regain control. Lukashenko, who has been in power for three decades, seems to have adapted his strategy. This election cycle, he is set to face minimal competition, with only a few carefully selected candidates allowed to run. The regime has implemented a dual strategy of offering economic incentives--such as increased wages and pensions for state employees--while simultaneously intensifying crackdowns on dissent, including the arrest of potential protestors. Many of the opposition figures from the previous election have either been imprisoned or forced into exile, including Tsikhanouskaya, who is currently residing in Lithuania. Her husband, Syarhey Tsikhanouski, remains behind bars alongside approximately 1,300 other political prisoners. Lukashenko first assumed the presidency in 1996, campaigning on an anti-corruption platform. He quickly consolidated power, amending the constitution to abolish term limits, effectively positioning himself for life in office. Although he has expressed intentions to eventually step down, analysts believe he may maintain influence through the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, a body he has empowered with more authority in recent years. There is speculation that he is grooming his son Kolya to eventually succeed him. Economic conditions in Belarus have improved somewhat in recent years, bolstered by increased consumer spending linked to Russian military expenditures. In 2024, the economy grew by 4%, and real disposable incomes rose significantly. However, experts predict challenges ahead as Russia's economy begins to slow, which will likely impact Belarus, particularly given its dependence on Russian energy supplies. The government has attempted to present an image of leniency by releasing political prisoners ahead of the elections. A recent announcement stated that 23 prisoners were released in a bid to foster a favorable public image. However, the most prominent opposition leaders remain incarcerated, undermining claims of genuine political reform. As the election date approaches, early voting has commenced, with reports of state employees being mobilized to ensure high turnout. The candidates permitted to run include Aleh Haidukevich, Alexander Khizhnyak, and Siarhei Syrankou, alongside a newly introduced candidate, Hanna Kanapatskaya, who is positioned as a nominal opposition figure. However, international observers, including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, have not been invited, raising further questions about the election's legitimacy. Polling indicates a significant decline in voter enthusiasm compared to 2020, with many citizens reportedly disillusioned with the electoral process. The opposition in exile, led by Tsikhanouskaya, has chosen not to engage in this election, focusing instead on garnering support from European nations to pressure the Lukashenko regime. Despite efforts to undermine Lukashenko's authority, the opposition remains fragmented and struggles to present a unified front. The European Parliament is anticipated to adopt a resolution condemning the election process, emphasizing the need for accountability regarding the human rights situation in Belarus. As the political landscape evolves, the implications of this election will be closely monitored both domestically and internationally.